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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


OCTOBER 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles has shown continuous growth for the last 12 months. The trend estimate increased by 0.3% to 79,774 in October 2003 compared with September 2003. The annual trend estimate increased by 14.9% to October 2003.

The largest growth in the trend estimate was recorded for Tasmania (5.0%), Queensland (1.1%) and South Australia (1.0%). Tasmania has shown growth of greater than 5.0% for the last three months. Falls in the trend estimate for the sales of new motor vehicles were recorded in New South Wales (0.4%), Victoria (0.3%) and the Northern Territory (1.0%).

Trend estimates for the sales of passenger vehicles and other vehicles in October 2003 rose by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively when compared with September 2003.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates of total new motor vehicle sales fell by 3.8%, from 81,079 in September 2003 to 77,967 in October 2003. The largest fall was recorded in the Northern Territory (10.9%). Tasmania was the only state/territory to record an increase with a 27.6% rise.


NOTES

CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

A significant methodological change will be introduced with the November reference month. Concurrent seasonal adjustment will replace forward factor methodology for the seasonally adjusted series. Full details of this change will be included in the November issue.

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (a) (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)
Original
2002	August	45,122	24,525	69,647	-1.7	2.8	-0.2
	September	43,396	22,638	66,034	-3.8	-7.7	-5.2
	October	48,269	24,063	72,332	11.2	6.3	9.5
	November	47,229	24,346	71,575	-2.2	1.2	-1.0
	December	45,317	22,656	67,973	-4.0	-6.9	-5.0
2003	January	40,015	21,155	61,170	-11.7	-6.6	-10.0
	February	43,677	23,058	66,735	9.2	9.0	9.1
	March	49,921	26,192	76,113	14.3	13.6	14.1
	April	44,602	24,263	68,865	-10.7	-7.4	-9.5
	May	49,646	28,616	78,262	11.3	17.9	13.6
	June	57,086	34,972	92,058	15.0	22.2	17.6
	July	51,450	28,071	79,521	-9.9	-19.7	-13.6
	August	49,869	26,304	76,173	-3.1	-6.3	-4.2
	September	51,749	26,042	77,791	3.8	-1.0	2.1
	October	52,180	27,045	79,225	0.8	3.9	1.8
Seasonally Adjusted
2002	August	45,301	25,217	70,518	2.1	4.9	3.0
	September	45,947	25,194	71,141	1.4	-0.1	0.9
	October	45,791	24,955	70,746	-0.3	-0.9	-0.6
	November	45,464	23,406	68,870	-0.7	-6.2	-2.7
	December	41,865	20,783	62,648	-7.9	-11.2	-9.0
2003	January	49,584	28,103	77,687	18.4	35.2	24.0
	February	46,685	24,775	71,460	-5.8	-11.8	-8.0
	March	47,875	25,032	72,907	2.5	1.0	2.0
	April	48,507	26,090	74,597	1.3	4.2	2.3
	May	50,185	27,164	77,349	3.5	4.1	3.7
	June	50,132	27,198	77,330	-0.1	0.1	0.0
	July	49,687	28,629	78,316	-0.9	5.3	1.3
	August	51,866	27,450	79,316	4.4	-4.1	1.3
	September	53,175	27,904	81,079	2.5	1.7	2.2
	October	49,724	28,243	77,967	-6.5	1.2	-3.8
Trend
2002	August	45,126	24,581	69,707	0.1	0.4	0.2
	September	45,113	24,454	69,567	0.0	-0.5	-0.2
	October	45,163	24,265	69,428	0.1	-0.8	-0.2
	November	45,355	24,165	69,520	0.4	-0.4	0.1
	December	45,724	24,235	69,959	0.8	0.3	0.6
2003	January	46,332	24,512	70,844	1.3	1.1	1.3
	February	47,132	25,035	72,167	1.7	2.1	1.9
	March	47,983	25,710	73,693	1.8	2.7	2.1
	April	48,833	26,366	75,199	1.8	2.6	2.0
	May	49,567	26,886	76,453	1.5	2.0	1.7
	June	50,156	27,275	77,431	1.2	1.4	1.3
	July	50,720	27,671	78,391	1.1	1.5	1.2
	August	51,159	27,962	79,121	0.9	1.1	0.9
	September	51,429	28,144	79,573	0.5	0.7	0.6
	October	51,550	28,224	79,774	0.2	0.3	0.3
(a) Other vehicle figures for August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.

		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)
Original
2002	August	23,456	18,942	13,516	4,537	6,102	1,311	597	1,186	69,647
	September	22,236	18,765	12,497	4,187	5,493	1,239	507	1,110	66,034
	October	24,618	20,185	13,456	4,499	6,627	1,203	580	1,164	72,332
	November	24,349	19,829	13,224	4,641	6,320	1,398	628	1,186	71,575
	December	21,741	19,706	12,672	4,531	5,989	1,584	585	1,165	67,973
2003	January	20,648	16,490	11,632	3,988	5,762	1,025	534	1,091	61,170
	February	21,965	18,152	12,956	4,754	6,164	1,069	582	1,093	66,735
	March	25,541	20,408	14,843	5,147	6,917	1,218	769	1,270	76,113
	April	23,588	18,368	13,386	4,507	5,948	1,177	728	1,163	68,865
	May	26,259	21,053	14,967	5,273	7,127	1,454	789	1,340	78,262
	June	31,168	24,132	18,084	6,089	8,662	1,549	866	1,508	92,058
	July	26,983	21,248	15,716	5,298	6,973	1,407	635	1,261	79,521
	August	25,391	19,799	15,248	5,263	7,048	1,589	555	1,280	76,173
	September	25,738	21,200	15,293	5,222	6,894	1,639	593	1,212	77,791
	October	25,533	21,337	15,521	5,430	7,487	2,008	607	1,302	79,225
Seasonally Adjusted
2002	August	24,094	18,986	13,768	4,427	6,190	1,256	617	1,180	70,518
	September	23,778	19,665	13,771	4,581	6,154	1,292	596	1,304	71,141
	October	24,025	19,026	13,887	4,434	6,434	1,225	588	1,127	70,746
	November	23,130	19,251	12,847	4,426	6,192	1,289	617	1,118	68,870
	December	20,809	17,721	11,628	4,138	5,564	1,080	611	1,097	62,648
2003	January	26,458	21,064	14,557	5,236	6,981	1,359	673	1,359	77,687
	February	23,770	19,372	13,648	5,110	6,444	1,271	674	1,171	71,460
	March	24,007	20,083	14,169	4,952	6,459	1,308	718	1,211	72,907
	April	25,777	19,695	14,567	5,044	6,203	1,333	706	1,272	74,597
	May	25,698	21,106	15,000	5,058	7,089	1,435	697	1,266	77,349
	June	25,969	21,134	14,169	5,062	7,468	1,520	660	1,348	77,330
	July	25,724	20,866	16,064	5,178	7,201	1,467	636	1,180	78,316
	August	26,916	20,469	15,938	5,373	7,193	1,558	592	1,277	79,316
	September	26,924	21,452	16,166	5,530	7,375	1,589	682	1,361	81,079
	October	25,146	20,237	15,915	5,347	7,390	2,028	608	1,296	77,967
Trend
2002	August	23,737	18,919	13,443	4,418	6,144	1,261	604	1,181	69,707
	September	23,535	18,998	13,439	4,417	6,155	1,248	599	1,176	69,567
	October	23,379	19,081	13,335	4,444	6,180	1,237	601	1,171	69,428
	November	23,348	19,176	13,233	4,524	6,217	1,233	613	1,176	69,520
	December	23,468	19,289	13,246	4,649	6,254	1,236	634	1,183	69,959
2003	January	23,770	19,461	13,405	4,793	6,307	1,251	659	1,198	70,844
	February	24,219	19,733	13,711	4,923	6,400	1,279	682	1,220	72,167
	March	24,732	20,056	14,083	5,016	6,547	1,320	696	1,243	73,693
	April	25,242	20,377	14,468	5,071	6,726	1,361	696	1,258	75,199
	May	25,656	20,618	14,815	5,102	6,910	1,404	684	1,264	76,453
	June	25,934	20,769	15,120	5,143	7,071	1,458	666	1,270	77,431
	July	26,170	20,872	15,452	5,221	7,218	1,528	650	1,280	78,391
	August	26,294	20,899	15,760	5,307	7,325	1,611	636	1,289	79,121
	September	26,307	20,861	16,006	5,383	7,394	1,698	626	1,298	79,573
	October	26,195	20,808	16,183	5,439	7,441	1,783	620	1,305	79,774
(a) Other vehicle figures for August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.